Problematic Finance Hypothesis

There are intrinsitically problematic hypothesis. One such hypothesis is “the stock market goes up at end of every year”. This hypothesis is clearly wrong. We easily find a year in which the stock market goes down at the end. This hypothesis is not problematic. The hypothesis can be at least verified to be false. On the other hand, the hypothesis “the stock market goes up at the end of year most of years” is problematic. The other way of saying the hypothesis is “the stock market goes up at the end of a year with probablitiy of X, where X is almost 100 percent, for all years”. This is a problematic. The hypothesis cannot be verified. Suppose we observe past 10 years of stock market. In 8 years, the stock market goes up at the end of the year. We may think it is true, but we don’t have enough data for “true”. Suppose we observe past 10 years of stock market, In 3 year, the stock market goes up at the end of the year. We may think the hypothesis is false, but we don’t have enough data for “false”. Suppose we have enough years (like 100 years) to verify this hypothesis for truth, would we still think the hypothesis will hold for the futre? No, the event “stock market goes up” 100 years ago is not the same one 100 years later; stock market is a different one every year. But in the hypothesis, we are presupposing the stock market is the same when we start to verify the hypothesis. Contradiction.